Analysis: One step back, two steps forward in Townsend’s modest revolution

Statistics from Scotland’s recent results suggest while the team isn’t as flamboyant as they used to be, Townsend’s men are developing a steely undertone that could push Scottish rugby forward like nothing else introduced in recent times.

Scotland were a force in the Five Nations but became something of mid-table mediocrity since the inception of the Six Nations at the turn of the century. Looking back at previous final table standings there’s a fair few fifth and sixth positions with a couple third places sprinkled here and there.

Scotland used to be exciting to watch while never taken seriously as contenders for the Six Nations, but looking at three key results for the dark blues – the reverse fixture against France last year, the calamitous match of madness versus Japan in the final game of the World Cup last October, and Scotland’s resounding win over France last weekend, Townsend is taking less the ‘play with passion and run like headless chickens’ approach, and instead building a more disciplined unit that will fare far better in the crunch encounters against the big sides.

-Punch drunk: France end chance of grand slam with loss to Scotland at Murrayfield
– Tournament preview; Scotland’s Six Nations

Past profligacy

Last year Scotland went to France with a game plan that kept ball to deck and tried to break the French forward line with attacking verve. Credit for the enthusiasm but the outcome of these tactics speaks for itself – Scotland limped onto the Eurostar off the back of a 26-10 battering. Over 500metres were run in that game, 253 passes made, 27 defenders beaten, while the Scots held 58 per cent possession and 53 per cent territory.

In Yokohama on October 13th Scotland’s crunch game against Japan eventually turned into a pit of desperation when, with both nations facing potential elimination, the word ‘defence’ (insert Japanese equivalent here) was forgotten and the sides went on a succession of counter attacking counter attacks. But while knock-out fever ensued, the groundwork for the new Scotland, the calmer more measured Scotland, was subtlety being put in place.

From attack to defence

375 metres were run against Japan. Kicks from hand went up from 18 to 21 compared to the loss to France. Passes fell dramatically from 253 to 163. Runs made decreased as did possession, territory and turnovers conceded, while ‘percentage tackles completed’ increased.

Townsend’s defensive revolution (heavily aided by new defence co-ordinator Steve Tandy) was further implemented against France last week. Compared to the half-mad Scotland in Japan, metres run were further down, as was passes-made; 163 to 94. ‘Kicks from hand’ jumped to 28, possession and territory were further conceded, while percentage of tackles successfully made went up. Scotland also seem to be holding themselves steadier on the field, the differences in territory percentages over each half decreased; 26/57 against Japan (31 point difference), 46/35 against France at Murrayfield (11 point difference).

Out with the exciting old and in with the boring new?

It’ll probably end-up being six on one side and half a dozen on the other working out who are for and against this moderate Scottish improvement.

Some fans will want to see the old cricket score contests like the 44-22 at Lansdowne Road in 2000 or the 38-all try cluster against England at Twickenham in 2018. Others (those fitted with pacemakers particularly) will be relieved Scotland are somewhat cooling their Gaelic tempers. One thing that might sway the public is the possibility of a future where Scotland aren’t going to Wales having lost the last ten, or heading across the Irish Sea six and nil, the results of these historic fixtures seemingly inevitable, but instead, going to follow a Scottish team where the unpredictability won’t be in the passages of play and the amount of tries scored, but in the result itself.

Scotland were solid against Ireland in Dublin and, even if the weather played a part, kept the score tight against an England side emerging as the best team in this year’s tournament.

Gregor Townsend’s men head to Cardiff with real optimism that the twenty-four year hoodoo of three-in-a-row could be broken against a lukewarm Welsh side on Saturday, and who knows what might follow after that.